Now that the All-Star Break is over, it’s time for the American League second half predictions. So relax on your recliner, grab your favorite beverage, and let’s have at it.
Boston will win the American League East. There’s just too much talent on this team. David Ortiz’s struggles early in the season are well documented. However, recent evidence shows he’s breaking out (3 HR and 9 RBI in his last 5 games). He now has 12 dingers and 47 RBI at the break, which isn’t even half bad, not to mention his protection in the batting order is Jason Bay. Bay, a seemingly underrated star in Pittsburgh, now is blossoming into fantastic ballplayer, putting up monster numbers (20 HR, 72 RBI, 10 SB at the break). Manny who? The Bosox pitching staff is awesome, even with Dice K out of commission.
The Yankees don’t have the pitching to compete with the Red Sox. The back end of the rotation is inconsistent at best with Andy Pettitte laboring (4.85 ERA, 1.53 WHIP), Joba Chamberlain still finding his way (4.25 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) and Chien-Ming Wang (ERA nearly double digits) doing his best Carl Pavano impression. Plus, with AROD hanging out with actresses until 2AM while he takes regularly scheduled days off, I don’t see them as a serious contender.
The Rays have an explosive lineup, there’s no doubt about it. They possess unbelievable speed (Carl Crawford with 44 swipes) and mammoth power (Carlos Pena, 24 HR, Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist, 17 HR apiece). Here’s the problem: no closer. You cannot win a pennant unless you obliterate your opponents in the ninth. Tampa originally counted on Troy Percival to slam the door shut, then Jason Isringhausen was brought in to do the job. Now it’s closer by committee (Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell, and yes, even Randy Choate). It’s not a bad crop of arms, but no Papelbons on the list, so, no title.
Toronto will most likely do a disappearing act with an extremely sketchy starting rotation (although Roy Halladay and Ricky Romero are solid) and the Orioles will score a lot of runs, but have no starting rotation if they are counting on Rich Hill (6.92 ERA and no concept of the strike zone).
The Kansas City Royals will win the American League Central. Just kidding!!! Sometimes I have to check and see if you’re actually reading this stuff. Remember at the beginning of the year, if you were watching MLB Network, analysts were actually predicting this and saying Zach Greinke was a greater pitcher than Cy Young (or something like that)? Well, reality has set in. Not to knock the team too much (their pitching staff is pretty good), but there’s not nearly enough punch in that lineup. Mike Aviles (.183 Avg, 1 HR, 8 RBI in 120 AB) was a huge disappointment before injuring himself for the remainder of the season and you can’t hang your hat on the return of the mighty Alex Gordon.
Seriously now, the White Sox will win the American League Central. The starters are solid and dangerous, especially if Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon return to any sort of past form (a gamble, I admit). The acquisition of Scott Podsednik (13 SBs) was crucial, giving the Chisox a much needed running game. There is no denying the power in the batting order, led by Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, and Jim Thome (20, 16, and 14 HR, respectively). Bobby Jenks is lights-out for the most part (20 saves). Carlos Quentin will soon be healthy; the final piece of the Central winning pie.
The Tigers will fade out of contention. Manager Jim Leyland has done a fine job juggling players and picking their spots, especially in the outfield, but if Magglio Ordonez doesn’t start producing (4 HR and 28 RBI), their chances of winning the division are slim. The starting pitching, beyond Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson, is just not strong enough. Can Armando Galarraga rebound (5.09 ERA, 1.55 WHIP)?
The Twins will win the wild card spot. That’s right, I said it. The starting rotation is the best in the division lead by Nick Blackburn (8-4, W-L, 3.06 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) and Kevin Slowey (10-3, W-L). They’re in the thick of things now and Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker haven’t even pitched well. Minnesota also has the best closer in baseball, Joe Nathan (1.31 ERA, 23 saves). Joe Mauer is having a great season (.373 AVG, 15 HR, 49 RBI) and former MVP Justin Morneau is always a force (.311 AVG, 21 HR, 70 RBI).
Ah yes, the poor Cleveland Indians. I really thought they were an excellent team at the beginning of the year, but they got off to a horrendous start, claiming the bottom of the division by early May. There’s an excellent slideshow that documents the tale of woe for the tribe: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/217276-10-reasons-why-2009-cleveland-indians-are-a-bust. It details everything from Kerry Wood’s $10 million dollar deal to the failure of the starting pitching. Personally, I feel dealing versatile Mark DeRosa (13 HR, 50 RBI) was the waiving of the white flag.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will win the American League West. The time to kick the great team while they’re down has past. The Rangers had their chance when half the Angels’ pitching staff was on the DL (mostly John Lackey and Ervin Santana), but they couldn’t pull away. Yes, Vlad Guerrero and Torii Hunter are injured, but this team is deep (and they’ll be back shortly). Kendry Morales (15 HR, 49 RBI) is displaying the power the scouts always knew he had and Juan Rivera has come back strong (.312 Avg, 16 HR, 52 RBI) from a serious leg injury of two years ago. Chone Figgins never gets enough credit at the top of their lineup (.310 Avg, 27 SB). Their bullpen is stable, despite losing Scot Shields for the remainder of the season.
The Rangers will fall out of contention by next month. Yes, they can certainly hit, and with Josh Hamilton back in the lineup after much time on the DL, the offense will click. Without much help for ace Kevin Millwood (8-7, W-L, 3.46 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), the starters won’t be able to hold opponents to under five runs a game. Just think, after Millwood in the rotation comes Vicente Padilla (4.53 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).
Amazingly enough, the Seattle Mariners are only four games out of first. That will change quickly in the second half. After all, Ken Griffey, Jr is only a shadow of his prior self (.222 Avg, 10 HR, 26 RBI) and believe it or not, Ronny Cedeno is now their starting shortstop. Yes, Ronny Cedeno, the owner of a .168 batting average. Russell may have a lot of muscle, but can he carry the entire offense? Odds are, no.
Finally, the Oakland A’s have something to look forward to. We will finally know where Matt Holliday ends up going (so many rumors all year). I personally feel they’re not a bad team. They have good young pitching (Dallas Braden, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Vince Mazzaro, etc), but they are 12 games back. Unless they make a late season surge like the old 2004 A’s with Rich Harden, Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito, we’ll see them start rebuilding by late season roster expansion time. And this current crop of pitchers is not that group of greats.
That is my American League predictions. You can take these picks to the bank. Or, maybe you shouldn’t. After all, banks are not the safest place to store money these days, are they?
Keith Cousin